A few weeks ago, Daisy Whitney asked Josh and me to make some predictions for web video in 2009. Our short list of thoughts, predictions and predilections have made their way from New Media Minute to ABC News to MediaPost, and are now here in their unadulterated form on Tilzy.TV! Help us add to the list.
1. 2009 will be all about brands, not just shows.
A show is just one opportunity for audiences to experience your characters, to taste the flavor of your brand. Create a meal (show), but be sure to serve up pleanty of appetizers and snacks (shorter videos) and some dinner conversation (interactive elements).
Your brands should be immersive experiences. I want to engage with them actively and passively, when I’m on the go, and when I want to veg out on my couch. Figure out ways to offer various experiences to match my various moods.
2. There’s still very little money to be made in online video, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t create. Don’t believe us? Ask Michael Eisner.
The advertising industry hasn’t fully adapted to video ads – agencies must change the nature of their operations to accommodate the new, more fragmented professional video market. But just because videos can’t be appropriately monetized in the near term, developing lasting brands (or reputations) associated with quality, innovative content will build value that can be monetized down the road. Experimentation and innovation are key.
3. In 2009, concept before craft.
ZeFrank showed us how unimportant production value can be. A concept should drive the tools used to bring it to life, not the other way around. Production value alone will get you nowhere. An innovative story driven by low production value can be far more engaging. You no longer need riches to become famous.
4. There will be celebs.
The web has been a playground shining stars like Michael Cera, Will Ferrell, and James Franco who have used internet video as way to play around during production breaks on major motion pictures. But the popularity of Joss Whedon’s Dr. Horrible has opened the eyes of entertainment industry vets to the possibilities of the web. Expect a lot more Hollywood celebs to take a serious look at online video in 2009.
5. Apocalyptic/Economy web shows.
With the economic downturn and the Mayan end of the world only three years away, expect to see some online series focused on the end of days and explaining how the hell we got there (which Hollywood has already started to do ).
6. Content is king, contacts are queen.
The first thing you need to make a splash online is quality content. Then, you need to hone relationships with established outlets that drive discovery of your product. There’s just too much stuff out there to hope that people will automagically find your show. Make friends with media institutions like YouTube, Blip, Viddler, MySpace, Revision3, Next New Networks, and more. Without them, your bit of brilliance may never be seen.
7. Sketch comedy is so 2005.
It makes sense that sketch comics would be early adopters of online video, finally able to spread their genius around the world. But enough already. We’ve seen too many remakes of your hilarious UCB improv, too many one-off 5-minute sketches from your parent’s living room. Sketch comics should innovate by creating thoughtful content around focused concepts.
8. Interactivity goes beyond a Facebook profile.
It was cute the first couple times, but now the shows with characters that only have facebook and MySpace pages are getting old. Successful entertainment brands will engage audiences with more than a social network by crafting the universe around their content. The opportunities to innovate in this regard are literally infinite. Big splashes will come from big ideas, not tired gimmicks.
Thanks to Daisy for keeping us thinking. What else will happen to web video in 2009?
Comments
Great insights there. I think they’re all pretty much spot on. One thing I think is interesting though relates to point 3 concept before craft. In theory I agree, but I think that people are starting to get tired of YouTube’s lack of production value vs. other outlets where it is much higher quality. I agree that a sh%tty story shown well is worse than vice versa, but if they’re even close I’d rather see something that was well thought out and well produced.
I agree, Gregg. There’s something nice about a professional sheen as long as it exists to drive the concept.
I really hope people branch away from sketch comedy in 09…I’ve yet to see a really effective drama born online. Online video needs a little respectability.
This is a great article, Jamison!
The quality argument needs to be seen by way of the long view: the higher the production value, the higher the audience expectations. Meanwhile, people with access to shoddy equipment but great ideas can still use YouTube, etc., as a place to build a following, with an eye on partnering with distributors and sponsors down the line. YouTube is the new film school — “If we can do x with no money, imagine what we can do with some cash.”
Well thought out post Jamison, thanks for sharing your insights.
I would add that I think that shows for niche interests will continue to be the most popular, because those markets aren’t being served on traditional TV for the most part. For example, whereas CNN provides simply ‘the news’, shows like ‘RocketBoom’ (www.rocketboom.com) on WebTV present unconventional news relating to Internet culture, a sub-niche. Whereas there are general business related shows on MSNBC etc, the WebTV show ‘Help! My Business Sucks!’ (www.HelpMyBusiness.com) covers unconventional marketing, a sub-niche again. Likewise with Gary Vaynerchuk’s Wine Library TV (www.WineLibraryTV.com). It’s a niche within the food and lifestyle category. Clearly this is one of the best things about WebTV because the content will more closely match what audiences are passionate about. That also means that there’s a long way to go before we see all niches served.
I believe that Hulu.com has had the most significant impact on the adoption of WebTV this year, and that will obviously continue. There’s a LOT of people out there who would love Hulu IF they only knew it existed! Hardly a week goes by without me mentioning it to someone, and they all say something like “how come I didn’t know about this before?!”
Another educational component about WebTV that needs to happen is for people to realize that they are now in control. Previously the networks dictated the schedules for programming, but with WebTV the viewer can choose when they want to watch their favorite shows.
Another trend I see happening in 2009 with WebTV is for more portable devices to support the easy acquisition and playback of shows. The platform created by the folks at MDialog.com is the best example I know of – they’ve done a great job with their built-in support for the iPhone.
I wonder whether there will be an officially accepted name for what WebTV in 2009? There are so many terms used currently – Internet TV, Video Podcasts, VBlogs, Online Video. Personally I favor WebTV because it says what it is, but that’s just me ;)
Great discussion, and a very well articulated vision of the future.
One additional factor I think will start to make its mark is in the baby steps the industry is taking towards removing the computer from the equation–whether it is Blip going directly to Tivo, or Sony having a link to video in its Bravia series. This might be more a 2010 issue, but it will surely play a growing role in 2009.
In terms of what to call it, I tend to use “web shows” or “web series”, only because I think “short form serial content” sounds ridiculous. I think “web show” works because it recognizes the medium the show was created for, no matter what screen you watch it on, the same way a movie is still a movie when I watch it on my laptop. The original medium shapes the artistic product.
Go 2009!
I couldn’t agree more with all of this. I read somewhere recently, “Your show is not a show. It’s a brand”. That’s my favorite quote of the year.
While I agree sketch comedy will be usurped by focused, story-driven comedy, still, brevity is the soul of a good web-sketch and pop culture is a train that keeps on keepin on. We’ll see sketches every day, just hopefully not ripoffs of SNL or KITH or Mr. Show stuff over and over and over still.
Look for WAF to make some strides this year Tilzy. ;)
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